Will the US get CLARITY this week? Bitcoin’s new $80K target: Hodler’s Digest, July 19

The fate of the U.S. CLARITY Act, related to crypto regulation, currently depends significantly on ethical considerations involving former President Trump, according to Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association. She emphasized that while ethics is a central political issue, it should not derail the rest of the legislative work around the bill. The act's progress is uncertain as it intertwines with political factors beyond the crypto industry's control.

In crypto markets, trading volumes on centralized exchanges (CEXs) dropped sharply in Q2 2026, with spot trading falling from $2.7 trillion in Q1 to $1.95 trillion and perpetual futures volumes declining by 10% to $12.7 trillion, as reported by CoinGecko. The stablecoin market also contracted by 1.6%, yet prediction markets bucked the trend, reaching a record $113.8 billion in notional volume. Polymarket, in particular, attracted significant activity, including over $3.3 billion on its World Cup betting market and substantial volumes for 2028 US presidential election contracts. However, regulatory hurdles are growing, with France ordering ISPs to block Polymarket for illegal gambling, a stance shared by 33 countries restricting access without VPNs.

The U.S. Senate unanimously opposed executive clemency for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, who is serving a 25-year prison sentence for fraud connected to FTX's 2022 collapse. Although the Senate's resolution cannot prevent a presidential pardon, it signals bipartisan resistance. Meanwhile, the FTX Recovery Trust has continued repayment efforts, distributing an additional $900 million to creditors, raising total payouts to about $10 billion. In the tokenized stocks space, market capitalization hit a record $2.3 billion, led by Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Solana networks, while major entities like Kraken and Binance dominate trading volumes. The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation also launched a tokenized securities pilot with over 40 financial firms.

On regulatory alignment, U.S. and UK financial authorities issued joint recommendations encouraging collaboration on tokenized assets, emphasizing that stablecoins should be fully backed by high-quality liquid assets. Despite this, U.S. regulators missed a statutory deadline for rules under the GENIUS stablecoin act, delaying issuer compliance timeframes. Meanwhile, price predictions for Bitcoin vary with some analysts projecting rallies to $80,000 by August, while others anticipate declines below $60,000. In cybersecurity, Consensys revealed it unknowingly employed a developer linked to North Korea but found no security breaches. Additionally, Kaspersky reported a new malware framework, “OkoBot,” targeting crypto investors via social engineering and compromised GitHub applications.

Lastly, Base creator Jesse Pollak acknowledged a strategic misstep in focusing on social apps, which led the Base network to lag in prediction markets and perpetual futures. He signaled a new focus on financial applications like trading, payments, and AI, with oversight of the Base App transferring to crypto trader Jordan Fish (“Cobie”). Overall, the report highlights ongoing regulatory, market, and security challenges within the crypto ecosystem amid evolving technological and policy landscapes.