Bitcoin traders keep chasing Trump’s Iran noise. The real signals are elsewhere.

Bitcoin traders have been reacting to President Donald Trump's unpredictable statements on the Iran conflict, causing volatility in crypto and risk assets. However, more significant indicators suggest increasing risk aversion, including the depletion of the International Energy Agency's strategic oil reserves set to occur in mid-April, and the sustained reduction in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, sharply higher ship insurance premiums reflect ongoing dangers in the region, signaling that market conditions remain unstable despite Trump's assurances. Until oil supply disruptions ease and insurance costs drop, risk assets like bitcoin may continue to face pressure.