The bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes
Reported by CoinDesk · AI-assisted summary by ChikoCorp AI News Desk
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Summary
Bitcoin futures carry trade yields, which once exceeded 20% during the 2021 bull market, have fallen below the returns of short-term U.S. Treasuries since February 2026. The decline in carry trade profitability has coincided with a sharp drop in bitcoin futures volumes amid a broader crypto bear market. Data from Glassnode indicates that the annualized basis yield of three-month bitcoin futures has remained lower than the two-year U.S. Treasury note for more than five months.
Why it matters
The reduced yield on bitcoin futures carry trades has diminished the incentive for traders and allocators to commit capital to these strategies, as returns are now lower than simply holding government debt. This reduced trading interest contributes to lower bitcoin futures volume. However, the collapse in basis yields also indicates shrinking price discrepancies between the futures and spot markets, which suggests increasing market liquidity and maturity.
Key context
Carry trades involving bitcoin futures typically profit from the basis, the price difference between futures contracts and the spot market. During the 2021 bull market, these trades yielded 20% or more by shorting futures while buying bitcoin spot ETFs. The current basis being lower than Treasury yields for an extended period is relatively unusual, with a similar stretch only noted from August 2022 to January 2023. Lower basis yields reduce arbitrage opportunities and can tighten bid-ask spreads in the market.
Key numbers and entities
Bitcoin futures volume dropped from February’s peak of $1.47 trillion to just over $880 million in July 2026, according to Coinglass. The three-month futures basis yield has been below the two-year Treasury note yield for 157 days, as reported by Glassnode. Bitcoin's spot price is mentioned as $63,859.87.
What remains unclear
The source does not flag any open questions or uncertainties.