September Fed interest-rate increase is 'very unlikely,' Goldman Sachs says
Reported by CoinDesk · AI-assisted summary by ChikoCorp AI News Desk
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Summary
Goldman Sachs has stated that a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in September is "very unlikely." Chief economist Jan Hatzius cited soft economic data such as retail sales and employment figures, along with improving inflation trends, as reasons for this assessment. Market expectations are considered too hawkish compared to Goldman Sachs’ baseline forecast.
Why it matters
Interest rate decisions directly influence credit availability and liquidity, which affect demand for risk-on assets like bitcoin. Typically, rate hikes are bearish for cryptocurrencies, while rate cuts tend to be bullish. With September rate hikes unlikely, this could support bitcoin prices, which have remained steady within a $62,000 to $66,000 range since early July.
Key context
Goldman Sachs revised its outlook following recent economic reports indicating slowing inflation and softer consumption. The CME FedWatch tool shows traders now assign only a 30.6% probability to a 25 basis point rate increase in September. Rate decisions have previously impacted crypto markets, including the 2022 sell-off during aggressive Fed tightening and the 2020 crypto rally after rate cuts.
Key numbers and entities
Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius (Chief Economist), Federal Reserve, bitcoin (approximately $63,500), CME FedWatch (30.6% odds of September rate hike), federal funds target rate range (3.75%–4%).
What remains unclear
The source does not flag open questions or limitations beyond current market and economic data assessments.