Quantum computing nears commercial breakthrough, IBM CEO says

IBM’s CEO Arvind Krishna stated that quantum computing is nearing a commercial breakthrough and is expected to start contributing to IBM’s revenue and profit by 2028 or 2029. He described quantum computing as transitioning from a long-term research project to an emerging business sector. Krishna forecasted the long-term economic potential of the technology could reach a value of one trillion dollars by the end of the 2030s.

Several companies including IBM, Alphabet, IonQ, and Rigetti Computing are competing to develop quantum hardware and software. Quantum computing is distinguished from artificial intelligence by its ability to address specific complex problems, such as molecular simulations, logistics optimization, materials science, and cryptography, which are impractical for classical computers to solve in reasonable times. IBM has already achieved some progress by using quantum computers to identify properties of materials that classical systems could not model, with potential applications in battery life, new materials, fusion energy, and drug discovery.

Investment in the quantum industry is growing, exemplified by IBM’s plan to establish a standalone quantum chip foundry with $2 billion in combined funding from IBM and the U.S. Department of Commerce’s CHIPS program. The development of quantum computing is also attracting interest from the crypto and bitcoin mining sectors, as firms like MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms adapt their infrastructure for emerging high-performance computing needs. However, quantum computers require fundamentally different hardware and environments than those used for current AI workloads.

There is attention in the crypto space regarding the potential security risks quantum computing could pose, particularly the possibility that advanced quantum machines might eventually break the encryption securing Bitcoin wallets and blockchain networks. Despite this concern, most experts interviewed by CoinDesk agree that such a scenario remains distant. Developers are actively working on quantum-resistant cryptography, and the general consensus is that blockchain systems will have adequate time to implement necessary upgrades before quantum computing reaches threatening capabilities.