Crypto’s next altseason may have fewer winners: WintermuteInstitutional investors accounted for 72% of Wintermute’s spot OTC flow in the first half of 2026 as capital clustered in fewer tokens and altcoin rallies became more selective.

According to Wintermute's OTC flow report for the first half of 2026, institutional investors have become dominant players in crypto's spot trading, accounting for 72% of spot OTC flow across all tokens on Wintermute’s desk—the highest recorded share. This marks an increase from 61% in the second half of 2025 and 59% in the first half of 2025. Wintermute noted that institutions are concentrating their activities on a smaller set of tokens, with liquidity focused on assets favored by these investors while activity in the “long tail” of smaller tokens has weakened. This narrowing of focus by institutional investors led Wintermute to suggest that future altcoin rallies may be more selective with fewer tokens gaining significant traction.

Wintermute’s data further showed that between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2026, institutional counterparties only increased the number of unique tokens they traded by 24%, compared to a 76% increase among retail clients. Additionally, institutional activity following a surge in token price and volume tended to fade within roughly one day, whereas retail trading activity typically remained elevated for about three days. The report indicates that institutional capital is clustering tightly around favored assets, resulting in a more concentrated market dynamic.

This trend of rising concentration aligns with broader signs across the market. For example, CryptoQuant’s CEO Ki Young Ju highlighted that traditional profit rotations from Bitcoin into smaller altcoins have “basically disappeared,” with Bitcoin-denominated altcoin trading volumes near lows not seen since 2021. Further, the 10 largest non-stablecoin altcoins constitute approximately 80.5% of that market’s capitalization. Similarly, Kaiko data from July 2025 revealed that the largest 10 altcoins accounted for 63% of altcoin trading volume, a notable increase from earlier levels as smaller tokens saw reduced activity.

Industry voices like DWF Labs managing partner Andrei Grachev have also observed that broad-based altcoin rallies are giving way to more selective movements in specific sectors. Grachev pointed out that many tokens compete for limited capital, while institutional investors focus more on flagship assets like Bitcoin, Ether, and tokenized real-world assets. Overall, Wintermute’s findings and corroborating market data suggest that the next altseason may be less about widespread altcoin gains and more about concentration in a smaller group of tokens favored by institutional investors.