Clarity Act's odds of passing plunge as Republicans reject Democrats' counter-proposal
Reported by CoinDesk · AI-assisted summary by ChikoCorp AI News Desk
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Summary
The odds of the Clarity Act passing have significantly decreased after Senate Republicans rejected a counterproposal from Senate Democrats. Senator Cynthia Lummis criticized the Democrats for not moving from their original positions despite substantial concessions made by Republicans. As a result, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have lowered the chances and delayed the timeline for the bill becoming law.
Why it matters
The source implies that the failure to advance the Clarity Act could prolong legislative uncertainty around crypto market regulation. However, it does not explicitly detail the broader impact on markets, users, or policy beyond the shifts in prediction market sentiment.
Key context
The Clarity Act is a proposed legislative bill aimed at regulating cryptocurrency markets, with ongoing negotiations between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans reportedly made over 100 changes to their draft, including ethics provisions, but Democrats resisted moving from their initial demands. The bill faces a key procedural vote requiring 60 Senate votes to proceed.
Key numbers and entities
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) is a leading Republican negotiator. Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 dropped from around 30% to 14%. Kalshi odds for a crypto market structure bill passing before October 1, 2027, fell from 53% to 36%, with an increased chance of passing by January 1, 2028, at 51%. The Senate vote on invoking cloture is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
What remains unclear
The source does not specify the detailed contents of the Clarity Act or the specific points of disagreement between Republicans and Democrats. It also does not clarify how banking groups' and attorneys general's positions might affect future negotiations or legislative outcomes.