Bitcoin SOPR metric sees longest profit run of 2026 as new analysis challenges bear market
Reported by Cointelegraph · AI-assisted summary by ChikoCorp AI News Desk
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Summary
Bitcoin's spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has remained above its breakeven level of 1 for three consecutive weeks in 2026, marking its longest bullish streak this year. This metric, which measures whether coins are moved at a profit or loss, is being interpreted as a sign of potential bull-market conditions by some analysts. However, ARK Invest’s David Puell cautions that more sustained bullish SOPR readings are needed before confirming a market bottom, and he sees continued downside risk for BTC.
Why it matters
The persistent SOPR above 1 suggests renewed profitability among Bitcoin holders and parallels patterns seen in early bull-market recoveries. This could signal a potential shift in market dynamics away from bearish trends. Nevertheless, skepticism from prominent analysts like Puell implies that the market's bullish recovery is not yet assured, influencing how traders and investors might approach Bitcoin in the near term.
Key context
SOPR is a classic onchain metric indicating whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss, with readings above 1 considered bullish. CryptoQuant’s data shows SOPR remained above 1 since August 19, and Checkonchain noted that short-term holders are showing profitability patterns typical of early bull markets. Despite these signals, higher timeframe price patterns needed to confirm a sustained bull market are still absent, and other analysts have labeled this bear market as potentially over based on different indicators.
Key numbers and entities
The SOPR metric has been above 1 for three weeks as of early September 2026. Bitcoin is trading around $80,000 during this period. Key entities involved include David Puell of ARK Invest, CryptoQuant (provider of the SOPR data), and Checkonchain (an onchain analytics suite). Puell’s analysis highlights the need for consistent profit realization without new lows as a condition for confirming a bullish trend.
What remains unclear
It is not established how long the SOPR needs to remain above 1 to definitively signal a lasting bull market. The source does not clarify how external macroeconomic factors or broader market conditions may impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Also, the exact timing or likelihood of Bitcoin reaching new macro lows remains uncertain according to the analysts cited.