Bitcoin’s recovery stalls just short of rescuing its last underwater cohort
Reported by CoinDesk · AI-assisted summary by ChikoCorp AI News Desk
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Summary
Bitcoin’s recovery has stalled just below rescuing the 2025 cohort of buyers, who remain underwater with an average purchase price of about $88,000. Data from Checkonchain indicates this 2025 group is the only yearly buyer cohort still at a loss, creating a potential resistance level due to sell pressure. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have an average cost basis around $82,300, which may serve as a support level should the price decline further.
Why it matters
The source highlights that the yearly volume-weighted cost bases act as key support and resistance levels in Bitcoin’s price cycle. As Bitcoin nears these average purchase prices, investor behavior may shift between selling to break even or adding to positions, influencing market dynamics. The ETF cost basis level is especially notable as ETF investors turned profitable recently, potentially providing support in a continued pullback.
Key context
Bitcoin’s price history shows that different yearly cohorts have experienced varying cost bases, shaping support and resistance. For example, the 2024 cohort’s average cost roughly matched Bitcoin’s May high of $82,100 before acting as resistance. Similarly, the 2023 cohort’s cost basis near $65,000 has consistently acted as support in 2026’s bear market. The 2026 cohort’s average cost basis is approximately $73,500, with those buyers largely in profit since late August.
Key numbers and entities
The 2025 yearly bitcoin buyers have an average cost basis near $88,000. The U.S. spot bitcoin ETF cost basis is approximately $82,300. Bitcoin’s monthly high in September was about $87,500, with recent trading just below $84,000. Other cohorts have respective cost bases: 2024 at about $82,100, 2023 at $65,000, and 2026 at $73,500.
What remains unclear
The source does not establish how long the 2025 cohort may remain underwater or the potential timeframe for price recovery to that level. It also does not detail the volume of bitcoin held by each cohort or the precise impact of institutional versus retail investors on these resistance and support levels. Additionally, the broader macroeconomic factors influencing these price dynamics are not discussed.