Bitcoin, ether perpetual volumes on Kalshi are dominated by an unusual, repetitive trade, data shows
Reported by CoinDesk · AI-assisted summary by ChikoCorp AI News Desk
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Summary
CoinDesk analyzed Kalshi's bitcoin and ether perpetual-futures trading volumes from mid-June to late September and found that a small number of fixed-dollar trade sizes dominate the market. Specifically, trades valued near $5,499 accounted for 57% of ether perp volume from Sept. 17 to 20, suggesting automated trading activity by a few participants. Kalshi has not identified who is producing these repetitive trades or offered an explanation for the patterns or changing target values.
Why it matters
The concentration of volume in recurring fixed-dollar trades raises questions about the actual liquidity and diversity of market participants on Kalshi’s crypto perpetuals. Since volume is often used by traders to gauge market activity and liquidity, understanding who generates these trades is important for evaluating the genuineness of reported market activity. The source does not explicitly elaborate on broader market or policy impacts.
Key context
Kalshi is a U.S. derivatives exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, known for prediction markets and recently added crypto perpetual futures in May. The repetitive trade sizes appear consistent with automated trading algorithms executing fixed dollar amounts that adjust contract sizes as asset prices change. A rebate program introduced by Kalshi in mid-September reduced fees for some traders, but the recurring trades predate this program.
Key numbers and entities
Trades near $5,499 comprised $7.7 million (57%) of a $13.5 million sample of ether perp volume from Sept. 17–20. For bitcoin, two recurring trade sizes worth approximately $2,500 and $5,000 covered 54% of an $8.5 million sample within the same period. Kalshi’s ether perp exhibited a volume-to-open interest ratio of 61, markedly higher than the median of about 8 across Kalshi’s perpetuals.
What remains unclear
The identities of the traders or algorithms generating the repetitive trades are unknown, as is whether the activity involves legitimate market making, rebate farming, or other strategies. Kalshi has not explained the reasons behind the changing fixed-dollar trade targets or responded to inquiries about self-matching or common ownership of these trades. The source also does not clarify if the trading behavior violates any rules or impacts market integrity.