'Anything remotely dovish' from Fed could be good for bitcoin, says analyst

Bitcoin maintained a steady position above $63,000 in late July 2026, showing an approximately 6% gain for the month despite weakness in AI-related technology and semiconductor stocks. The cryptocurrency's resilience contrasts with the struggles of these sectors ahead of a highly uncertain Federal Reserve meeting, with markets currently assigning about a 70% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged and a 30% chance of a 25 basis point hike, according to CME FedWatch data. This split reflects reduced forward guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is noted for creating more uncertainty about the central bank’s next move.

Analysts suggest that bitcoin’s correlation with traditional equities has weakened in recent weeks, potentially signaling that the upcoming Fed decision might have a smaller influence on bitcoin compared to riskier stocks. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, observed that while stocks entered July with strong momentum and stretched positions, bitcoin continued to consolidate near multi-year lows, making softer correlations expected. Supporting this view, Block Scholes noted bitcoin’s 6% monthly increase versus little change in the S&P 500 and a nearly 20% drop in semiconductor stocks.

The normalized volatility of market expectations has fluctuated over the past month amid mixed inflation data, geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices, and tariff risks, according to Thahbib Rahman of Block Scholes. Despite these challenges, cryptocurrency sentiment has improved, and Rahman suggested that “anything remotely dovish” from Fed Chair Warsh could further support bitcoin’s outperformance going forward. Thus, while uncertainty looms over the Fed meeting, market watchers see bitcoin as potentially poised to remain more resilient than other tech-driven assets.